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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 49

New York Giants 6 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DET 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model