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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 58

New York Giants 6 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end pushed ob at DET 43 for 15 yards (5-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model