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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 39

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model