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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 6

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 17-M.Badgley 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP