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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 6

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 6-Folk 53rd consecutive FG under 40 yds (NFL record is 70, Tucker).

The Three Options

GO +3.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.90 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP