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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 27

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model