Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 80

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

(:29) 17-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 42 for 9 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.29 EP
50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model