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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NE 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model