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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 25

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model