Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 65

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

(7:45) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones pushed ob at NE 15 for 7 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model