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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 36

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end to NYJ 36 for no gain (57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model