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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 57

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model