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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 82

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 7-B.Mann punts 37 yards to NE 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model