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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 52

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 17-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model