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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 17-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model