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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP