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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 6-M.Haack punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model