Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(1:53) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to IND 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 45 for 17 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model