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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.42 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model