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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at IND 47 for -8 yards (59-I.Odenigbo). FUMBLES (59-I.Odenigbo) [59-I.Odenigbo], ball out of bounds at IND 45.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model