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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to IND 45, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.34 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 87, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP