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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model