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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to IND 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-K.Coutee MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 20. 15-K.Coutee to IND 28 for 8 yards (89-J.Stoll, 54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model