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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 6-M.Haack punts 47 yards to PHI 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP