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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 8-A.Siposs punts 31 yards to IND 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.16 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model