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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP