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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones to JAX 40 for 10 yards (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -1.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model