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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP