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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP