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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to DEN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-20-R.Blackshear.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model