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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model