Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 65

Denver Broncos 3 – Carolina Panthers 17

(4:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 15 for 6 yards (15-J.Virgil, 40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.80 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model