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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to DEN 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-M.Washington to DEN 38 for 20 yards (34-S.Chandler). PENALTY on DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell, Face Mask, 9 yards, enforced at DEN 18. Penalty on DEN-36-D.Ozigbo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP