Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 57

Denver Broncos 10 – Carolina Panthers 23

(2:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Hinton.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.08 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP