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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to DEN 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.12 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model