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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 23 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DEN 20 for 3 yards (53-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.33 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP