4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to CAR 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 29 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke, 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP