Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model