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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 39
Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Green Bay Packers 20
What Actually Happened
(:54) 1-J.Hurts right guard to GB 35 for 4 yards (29-R.Douglas).
The Three Options
GO
+1.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.09 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
KICK
-0.24 EP
- 44% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
- 56% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
