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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 32

Green Bay Packers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to PHI 11 for 21 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson). PHI-23-C.Gardner-Johnson was injured during the play. He is Out. Penalty on PHI-43-K.White, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model