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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to ARI 6, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model