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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LAC 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-D.Carter to LAC 39 for 5 yards (57-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP