Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(6:18) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LAC 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-57-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model