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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 16-J.Scott punts 26 yards to ARI 18, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-40-Z.Horvath.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model