Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(2:03) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to ARI 41, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-P.Cooper pushed ob at LAC 44 for 15 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model