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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model