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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:01) (Punt formation) 11-R.Dixon pass short right to 87-J.Harris to LA 47 for 6 yards (21-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.43 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model