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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to KC 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model