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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.72 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model