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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model